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Political Alliances Shift Among Jewish- and Arab-Americans

William Adler

Both major parties are aggressively courting Jewish and Muslim voters, who could be crucial in key states this fall. The dynamics of this issue, however, have significantly changed over the last four years. Traditionally, the approximately six million Jewish-Americans have voted overwhelmingly for Democrats, and Democrats have traditionally been seen by the Jewish community as pro-Israel. Republicans were generally seen as more interested in oil, and therefore pro-Arab. But this image has started to shift since September 11, 2001, and the elucidation of the “Bush Doctrine.” President Bush’s strong stand against Islamic extremism, along with his call to replace Yasir Arafat as the Palestinian leader, appeals to Jews watching the ongoing effects of the intifada within Israel, with daily attempts at suicide bombings. Right-wing evangelical Christians, such as President Bush, are also usually strong supporters of Israel and have worked hard in recent years to improve their image in the Jewish community.

On the flipside, liberals have become more skeptical of Israeli policy in recent years under the Sharon government. Combined with opposition to Bush’s actions and to the USA PATRIOT Act, liberals have been able to appeal to the Muslim-American and Arab-American communities more strongly than ever. Presidential candidates Howard Dean and Dennis Kucinich gave strong speeches to the Arab-American Institute’s National Leadership Conference last October, where they condemned current US policy in the Middle East.

In 2000, George W. Bush courted the Arab-American vote, especially in key states such as Michigan. In that election, Bush won 58% of the Arab-American vote, Gore took 22%, and Ralph Nader, who is of Lebanese descent, garnered about 20%. Unsurprisingly, Bush captured only 19% of the Jewish vote nationwide, which is about average for Republicans since Ronald Reagan, who peaked at 39% of the Jewish vote in 1980.

This time around, Bush is aiming straight at the Jewish vote. The Republican Jewish Coalition recently released a study showing that 35% of Jewish-Americans voted for Republicans in the 2002 midterm elections, a significant jump from previous years. States that look to be tight this year, such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, involve significant Jewish populations, making them all the more enticing as targets.

However, with Senator John Kerry as the presumptive Democratic nominee, this task has been made significantly more difficult. Kerry has a generally pro-Israel voting record, Jewish blood (from his paternal grandfather) and Jewish relatives (his brother converted to Judaism). Furthermore, despite some past praise for Arafat, he is viewed in a positive light by most Jewish-Americans. Kerry also has an advantage in the Arab and Muslim-American communities, who are deeply opposed to Bush’s policies in office. A Zogby poll shows Kerry with 54% and Bush with only 30% of Arab-Americans.

Another important factor for Bush, even if he cannot win a significantly higher percentage of the Jewish vote, is fundraising. Jews have not only voted for Democrats in large numbers in the past, but make up a disproportionate share of Democratic Party fundraising efforts. The Republicans hope to siphon off some of this money, simultaneously hurting the Democrats and increasing the president’s dollar advantage. In fact, one anonymous Democratic congressman recently told Roll Call, a Washington-based paper focusing on Congress, that “it's about [Republicans] siphoning off [financial] support. It's not about the vote." There’s certainly no doubt that Republican strategists love the idea of getting more Jewish money into their coffers, but it seems that they would also like to get the Jewish vote in key swing states, especially Florida, with its older, largely Jewish retiree population.

As the writing of this article came to a close, Israel assassinated Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder and head of Hamas, in a missile strike. So far, the initial reaction from the White House has been to criticize Israel’s action as “deeply troubling.” and not helpful in encouraging peace. It remains to be seen if Sharon will implement his unilateral withdrawal plan before the November elections, and what its effect could be.

William Adler is a student in the Political Science department.