Philipp Kuntz and Mark R. Thompson, More than Just the Final Straw: Stolen Elections as Revolutionary Triggers

Stolen elections are triggering events that overcome barriers to revolutionary action against electoral authoritarian regimes. They mobilize ordinary citizens, strengthen the opposition, and divide the regime. As neoinstitutionalist theories of revolution suggest, the relative openness of electoral authoritarianism inhibits mass protest. But when elections are stolen, regimes undergo "closure," increasing the probability of protest. Using the examples of recent democratic uprisings in Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine, the importance of stolen elections is examined through within-case comparisons. The failure of other potential revolutionary precipitants in these cases underscores that stolen elections are not merely replaceable final straws. Stolen elections have not only been crucial for the emergence of revolutionary situations, they have shaped outcomes as well. Linking popular mobilization to fraudulent elections has become part of the repertoire of contention of democratic revolutionaries.